The future is hard to predict. Unless you’re a Simpsons writer. But just like the FOX show predicted, self-driving cars are the way of the future, with hopes of ending a host of problems, such as traffic fatalities, congestion, driver shortages, and much more. The most common example is Tesla’s Autopilot. In 2013, Elon Musk announced Autopilot and in 2016, Tesla launched its successor, Enhanced Autopilot, and the ill-named Full Self Driving (FSD). Since then, things have gone … a bit south. Still, the field has been ever-evolving with new players seemingly added everyday, while others are being devalued, facing stagnated growth, or being phased out all together.
A Google search based database, from Exploding Topics, shows that searches for “Autonomous Driving” have seen an explosive 1875% growth in the past decade. Some of the top names that come up are Waymo, Cruise, and Argo AI, however, how well have these companies fared? Let’s take a deeper look. Founded in 2009 as the Google Self-Driving Car Project, Waymo was one of the most promising autonomous vehicle (AV) startups. It has the backing of its tech giant parent and was lead by prominent names, including Google’s co-founder Sergey Brin, Stanford AI Lab (SAIL) director and professor Sebastian Thrun, and engineer Anthony Levandowski, who had previous experience with self-driving systems. A Discovery Channel producer asked to feature Levandowski’s previously self-driving motorcycle, but was unable to do so since it had been donated to the Smithsonian. He asked Larry Page and Thrun if they would be willing to create something, which they promptly denied to avoid liability, however they gave him the green light to start his own venture, independent of Google. Levandowski did just that, establishing 510 Systems and Anthony’s Robots, and curating the Pribot, a modified Toyota Prius that made rounds in the news for driving itself across the Bay Bridge to deliver a pizza, under police escort, in late 2008. The team was authorized to proceed working on AVs and the rest is history; Google started Project Chauffeur which continued to use modified Priuses to fly under the radar for over a year, until the New York Times revealed its existence in 2010. Soon after, Google quietly acquired 510 Systems and Anthony’s Robots, whose existing work had since been enhanced by Thrun and others at Google. Multiple iterations of these technologies were released over the span of multiple vehicles, primarily those with Waymo branding, including their very own Firefly that featured a bare bones interior without any pedals or steering system.
Traditional automakers, from the likes of Honda to Genesis to Mercedes, have all tried their hand at this revolutionary technology with certain driver-assistance features, offering everything from lane change assists to hand-free commuting. These, however, fall under SAE’s standards as L1 or L2, nowhere near what constitutes a fully autonomous vehicle. Honda broke ground in 2021 for having the first government-approved L3 system, albeit limited to 100 lease-only vehicles in Japan, while Mercedes was the first to release L3 in Germany, Nevada, and California (L3 is approved on a state-by-state basis). Mercedes has even been approved for L4…in a special parking garage of the Stuttgart airport. GM went a different route, more similar to Google than a traditional carmaker, by buying startup Cruise. Cruise was a promising venture, initially trying to make a retrofittable kit, before trying its hand at a fully autonomous vehicle. It went through the famed Y Combinator before GM’s purchase and has since seen billions pour out from the automaker’s pockets.
However, results in this field are hard to come by. Even with the best talent and billions in profits, traditional automakers still have struggles similar to those of startups in regards to AVs. Some have promised self-driving to be right around the corner, except that has yet to be seen. Tesla’s are continuing to hit firetrucks and Cruise’s cars are getting stuck in construction proving the reality of this space-age tech: it’s nowhere close to being done. Aside from that technological hurdle, there’s legal battles to be fought too. Levandowski, the Waymo co-founder we examined earlier, is a good example of a success story gone wrong. He left Google in 2015, with a few co-workers, to start Otto, a self-driving truck startup. In 2016, Uber bought Otto and a legal frenzy ensued. Waymo sued Uber for stealing trade secrets and Levandowski was eventually found guilty. Otto was shut down soon after, only adding to the frustrations of creating the next big thing. There’s even skepticism over Mercedes’ L3 system and how it’ll literally stop on the side of a highway if it asks you to take over within 10 seconds. Yeah, technology isn’t perfect, and it doesn’t look like it’ll be good enough anytime soon.
